<div style="language:zh-CN;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:6.0pt;margin-left:.31in;
text-indent:-.31in;text-align:justify;text-justify:inter-ideograph;direction:
ltr;unicode-bidi:embed;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="mso-special-format:bullet;font-family:Arial">•</span></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">2016</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">年是债券违约集中爆发期,约占违约总规模的</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">80%</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">。违约主体中包括</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">10</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">家民营</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">企业</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">,</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">5</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">家</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">央</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">企及</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">3</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">家</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">地方</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">国企,其中</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">4 </span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">家发行主体为上市公司。</span></div>

<div style="language:zh-CN;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:6.0pt;margin-left:.31in;
text-indent:-.31in;text-align:justify;text-justify:inter-ideograph;direction:
ltr;unicode-bidi:embed;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="mso-special-format:bullet;font-family:Arial">•</span></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">从企业性质上来说,国有企业并未体现出比民营企业更好的债权保护,</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">处置</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">进程甚至低于民营企业。而上市公司由于存在壳价值,可以通过资产重组</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">实现</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">债权的转让,违约损失率总体较小,上述涉及的</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">4 </span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">家上市公司均实现</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">全额兑付。</span></div>

<div style="language:zh-CN;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:6.0pt;margin-left:.31in;
text-indent:-.31in;text-align:justify;text-justify:inter-ideograph;direction:
ltr;unicode-bidi:embed;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="mso-special-format:bullet;font-family:Arial">•</span></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">导致这些个券违约的原因中,绝大多数是由行业不景气、经营持续亏损</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">、偿债</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">能力恶化引发流动性危机所致。另外管理层变动及公司治理风险导致</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">银行抽</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">贷也是重要的触发因素,而这在民营企业中尤为显著。</span></div>

<div style="language:zh-CN;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:6.0pt;margin-left:.31in;
text-indent:-.31in;text-align:justify;text-justify:inter-ideograph;direction:
ltr;unicode-bidi:embed;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="mso-special-format:bullet;font-family:Arial">•</span></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">一般来说,债券评级是其信用风险最好的评价指标。但</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">由于</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">中国</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">评级机制和</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">信用体制的特殊性</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">,</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">评级隐含了过多对政府隐性担保</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">的因素,造成</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">了发行人总体评级偏</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">高。事实上</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">,前述大多数违约债券在违约时</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">仍是</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">AA-</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">以上评级</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">。</span></div>"/>
<div style="language:zh-CN;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:6.0pt;margin-left:.31in;
text-indent:-.31in;text-align:justify;text-justify:inter-ideograph;direction:
ltr;unicode-bidi:embed;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="mso-special-format:bullet;font-family:Arial">•</span></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">2016</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">年是债券违约集中爆发期,约占违约总规模的</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">80%</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">。违约主体中包括</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">10</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">家民营</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">企业</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">,</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">5</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">家</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">央</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">企及</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">3</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">家</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">地方</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">国企,其中</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">4 </span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">家发行主体为上市公司。</span></div>

<div style="language:zh-CN;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:6.0pt;margin-left:.31in;
text-indent:-.31in;text-align:justify;text-justify:inter-ideograph;direction:
ltr;unicode-bidi:embed;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="mso-special-format:bullet;font-family:Arial">•</span></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">从企业性质上来说,国有企业并未体现出比民营企业更好的债权保护,</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">处置</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">进程甚至低于民营企业。而上市公司由于存在壳价值,可以通过资产重组</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">实现</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">债权的转让,违约损失率总体较小,上述涉及的</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">4 </span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">家上市公司均实现</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">全额兑付。</span></div>

<div style="language:zh-CN;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:6.0pt;margin-left:.31in;
text-indent:-.31in;text-align:justify;text-justify:inter-ideograph;direction:
ltr;unicode-bidi:embed;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="mso-special-format:bullet;font-family:Arial">•</span></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">导致这些个券违约的原因中,绝大多数是由行业不景气、经营持续亏损</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">、偿债</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">能力恶化引发流动性危机所致。另外管理层变动及公司治理风险导致</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">银行抽</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">贷也是重要的触发因素,而这在民营企业中尤为显著。</span></div>

<div style="language:zh-CN;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:6.0pt;margin-left:.31in;
text-indent:-.31in;text-align:justify;text-justify:inter-ideograph;direction:
ltr;unicode-bidi:embed;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="mso-special-format:bullet;font-family:Arial">•</span></span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">一般来说,债券评级是其信用风险最好的评价指标。但</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">由于</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">中国</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">评级机制和</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">信用体制的特殊性</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">,</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">评级隐含了过多对政府隐性担保</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">的因素,造成</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">了发行人总体评级偏</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">高。事实上</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">,前述大多数违约债券在违约时</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">仍是</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">AA-</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">以上评级</span><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: 仿宋_GB2312;">。</span></div>"/>

信用债违约

1 楼
从中国国内的公募信用债来看,截至2016 年底,已发生违约的公募债券共计30,涉及20个发债人,违约债券总规模为248亿元人民币,对应的违约率为0.18%低于欧美市场平均1%-2%的违约水平
2016年是债券违约集中爆发期,约占违约总规模的80%。违约主体中包括10家民营企业5企及3地方国企,其中4 家发行主体为上市公司。
从企业性质上来说,国有企业并未体现出比民营企业更好的债权保护,处置进程甚至低于民营企业。而上市公司由于存在壳价值,可以通过资产重组实现债权的转让,违约损失率总体较小,上述涉及的4 家上市公司均实现全额兑付。
导致这些个券违约的原因中,绝大多数是由行业不景气、经营持续亏损、偿债能力恶化引发流动性危机所致。另外管理层变动及公司治理风险导致银行抽贷也是重要的触发因素,而这在民营企业中尤为显著。
一般来说,债券评级是其信用风险最好的评价指标。但由于中国评级机制和信用体制的特殊性评级隐含了过多对政府隐性担保的因素,造成了发行人总体评级偏高。事实上,前述大多数违约债券在违约时仍是AA-以上评级
2018-01-23 14:39:10
txqq_ca09d9578c8ce705758197
2 楼

回复:1楼

后面几段开头显示不全

2018-01-28 20:29:36